During one of the final episodes of Yellowstone, on the eve of auctioning off the Dutton family’s assets, Beth Dutton instructs the bartender serving her guests to keep drinks light. Her rationale for doing so is stated simply “Hungover bidders do not spend money.” And Beth is right. Being in top form with a sound mind matters when making big decisions and precarious purchases.
Taking chances, but doing so with confidence, is a unique feature of America’s entrepreneurial spirit—and the world has benefited greatly from it. Presently, though, investors and entrepreneurs are feeling punch drunk in the wake of the Trump Administration’s executive orders and the business community is getting sick of surprises and thirsty for stability. Taking calculated risks is impossible in an environment where no one knows what is going on. And just as too much alcohol can dull our senses, too much government interference can dampen America’s entrepreneurial spirit—and this has been proven time and time again.
It is bad enough that producers had to deal with supply chain bottlenecks and inflationary prices just a few years ago during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet here we are worrying about inventory and interest rates once again. What makes this time worse around, though, is the fact that the cause comes from within the Whitehouse.
Firms who found it advantageous or necessary to reshore operations would have done so during the lockdowns, and the same is true for businesses who could source from domestic suppliers or profit most from US consumers. Yet today businesses are being pressured to do so with political concerns dampening economic strategies. Indeed, the biggest lesson learned during the pandemic was that flexibility and operational agility is a must for catering to consumer needs, however, the Trump Administration is leaving producers few options, and the adult beverage sector serves as a clear case in point.
Domestic Shifts and Foreign Rifts
According to a recent survey on alcohol use, 49% of Americans intend to limit their drink intake throughout 2025. And Gallup polling has revealed a significant drop in alcohol consumption for those aged 35 and younger as compared to two decades prior. Gen Z’s lack of interest In alcohol, along with the rising popularity of abstention campaigns, such as Sober October and Dry January, creates a bit of a conundrum for distilleries and distributors.
Some savvy beverage brands, however, have decided to meet consumers where they are at by investing in the development of non-alcoholic options. Product development in this regard is a smart move since the non-alcoholic sector is expected to surge at over $23 billion globally. The demand for adult style beverages is still remarkably strong despite the disinterest in alcohol consumption.
According to an article in Time “there’s been a wave of sober bars opening across the U.S,” and this is good news for artisanal and craft beverage makers who leverage unique botanicals and hops for cultivating specialty drinks. The bad news, though, is Trump’s tariffs have been generating concerns over access to and the affordability of the importation of certain ingredients.
Beverage makers who infuse their products with tropical blends may be pausing production, and brewers that depend on Canadian barley shipments are likely cringing at how Trump has been handling relations with our northern neighbors. Canadian suppliers are a must for beer production—the US imports “over $17 billion worth of Canadian grain and grain products every year to meet domestic demand.” And as if it wasn’t bad enough to have supplies hampered by the President’s proposed tariff rates, Trump’s political posturing has resulted in some of America’s most popular brands, like Jack Daniels, to be pulled from store shelves.
All of British Columbia’s government-run liquor stores have halted the purchase of American beers, wines, and liquors and this is an unfortunate situation for sippers and sellers alike. Similar to the Dutton family, whisky is the drink of choice for many Canadians and 95% of all Bourbon whisky is produced in Kentucky.
American alcohol producers rely on foreign markets for generating revenue and, prior to Trump taking office, plans to pursue greater sales opportunities were on the rise. In an interview with Bloomberg News, the CEO of CraftCo, Ali Anderson, conveyed that plans for exporting to Canada and throughout the EU have been put on hold and the impact is significant both in terms of price pressures as well as employment prospects. Job security may be in jeopardy for those in the craft beverage ranging from farming and cultivation to marketing and distribution.
Anderson shared that brands are being forced to pivot plans and pullback from investments in international sales channels—and this is not only due to Trump’s trade war but also the distaste for the administration’s rhetoric. Canadians consumers have been boycotting American made products for quite some time now, and European retailers have been designating (if not removing altogether) US brands so that shopper can avoid purchasing such goods.
Thus, even if trade talks with the Trump Administration improve, the damage for some American producers is already done. Once a customer becomes accustomed to buying another brand, especially one that is now tied to national pride, it is unlikely for a U.S. firm to win that business back. And, given the abstention of younger generations in the domestic market, as noted above, interests for pursuing entrepreneurial ventures in the alcohol industry could shrink over time.
The American Dream is Losing Steam
American business owners tend to be adept at riding out market volatility but, like with alcohol, there are limits as to how much one can take. So, while a lot of attention is rightly being paid to the fact that markets hate uncertainty it is also critical to note that businesses hate rigidity. Being forced to use only certain networks, pursue sales in only select markets, or source from only domestic suppliers leaves little room for agility and creativity. Dismantling the ability for firms, particularly those that are small and medium sized, to attain supplies or market internationally infringes upon the rights of individuals who have advanced our economy via their professional pursuits.
Stripping away the autonomy and agency business owners have over their operations is stripping away the incentive for individuals to take chances and for investors to fund new ventures. And this brings us to another questionable characteristic trait of younger generations. Just as Gen Z prefers adult drinks but sans the alcohol, Gen Z also prefers to pursue entrepreneurial opportunities but not in the traditional sense. The gig economy, freelance work, and side hustles, interest Gen Z the most, not business development.
According to data insights from Hubspot, 68% of Gen Zers opt for self-employment primarily to be their own boss and “escape the traditional 9-5” while only 19% asserted that they were passionate about their business idea—and this is quite telling. Gen Z is aiming to avoid corporate America rather than advance it.
If the government keeps interfering with market matters and keeps making it more difficult to do business, it is likely that Gen Z’s negative view of doing business will only get worse. Entrepreneurs and business owners require sound money and clear policies, but the current administration’s ever evolving executive orders are giving business owners a bigger headache than any night of drinking could—and Gen Z wants none of it.
So, with all this in mind and in closing, let me leave you with another line from Beth Dutton in Yellowstone, which feels applicable for what the business community is facing today. When Beth is asked whether it is a one or two shot kind of day, her response is “It’s a pour the bottle in the bucket kind of day.” Trump’s second term is less than six months in and I, for one, could use a strong drink.
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